“The Israeli government may wish for the election of Trump who would give it a blank check,” analyzes the director of Iris

Pascal Boniface, le patron de l'Iris.

Trois mois après les attaques du Hamas, état des lieux au Proche-Orient avec Pascal Boniface, le directeur de l'Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques (Iris).

The crisis in the Middle East reached a turning point with the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7, just three months ago, and Israel's massive response. What historical reading do you make of it ?

This is the long process of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the hopes raised by the Oslo Accords, which the extremists of Hamas on the Palestinian side and representatives of the settlers on the Israeli side have always refused .

The assassination of Rabin on November 4, 1995 by an Israeli extremist and the Hamas attacks put to death the Oslo process which had been in a state of brain death since the beginning of the century.

IDF response strikes are causing death in the Gaza Strip, despite calls for a ceasefire. Will this war last ?

It depends on what you call “war”. Is this the current phase, or a longer process ? As long as there is no real peace between Israelis and Palestinians, namely the creation of ;rsquo;a Palestinian State next to the State of Israel living within secure and recognized borders, there will always be a state of latent or intense war.

To the extent that Israel is totally insensitive to international pressure, including the United States, the current phase will end when the Jewish state considers that it has destroyed the infrastructure and state -major of Hamas, and will think he has obtained a result satisfactory to his public opinion.

But all generals will tell you that military operations are useless if they are not put at the service of a political project.

What will be Israel's political project after the end of the fighting (*) ? If it is a question of maintaining colonization in the West Bank and the blockade of Gaza, one day or another, the war will resume.

Is the two-state solution still viable ?

One might wonder because of the intensification of colonization, 200,000 in Jerusalem, 500,000 in the West Bank. Furthermore, Israeli society has largely shifted to the right and the extreme right and there is no longer a majority in favor of the two-state solution. The attacks of October 7 strengthened the Israeli extreme right.

Can Israel lose US support ?

Yes and the Israeli government can wish for the election of Donald Trump, who would give it a blank check. The American Jewish community, on the other hand, has distanced itself from Israel. She is overall liberal and democratic. But Israel enjoys the unconditional support of Christian Zionists.

Moreover, within the Democratic Party, there is a generational divide: those over 30 still show very active support for Israel while those under 30 are outraged by the bombing of civilian populations and the support, according to them, unconditional, that Biden gives to Israel.

Pour répondre aux besoins humanitaires des civils de #Gaza la France apportera une aide de 10 millions € qui iront aux agences de l'ONU (UNRWA, PAM), à la Croix rouge @CICR_fr et aux ONG. https://t.co/9U6JLoOkms

— Catherine Colonna (@MinColonna) October 16, 2023

Can we fear an extension of the conflict ?

Hezbollah engaged in some skirmishes, but did not initiate high-intensity fighting against Israel. Hezbollah is both an ally of Iran, an armed militia but it is also a Lebanese national movement. And the Lebanese have enough problems to create an additional one by launching a war against Israel.

As for the Iranian regime, events benefit it without it having to get involved directly. And he is above all interested in the survival of his regime.

The deployment of two American aircraft carriers in the region, one of which is returning to the United States, has had a deterrent effect.

We must now see if the assassination in Beirut of Hamas number two leads to a regional conflagration.

This war is also reshuffling the cards across the world…

This war accentuated the divide “The west versus the rest”. Western countries very strongly support Israel, while in what is called the “Global South”, there is almost unanimous condemnation, with a few exceptions.

In this part of the world, Westerners are considered hypocritical in advocating respect for international law and humanitarian law, except where Israel is concerned.

Vladimir Putin is delighted with the events. It can highlight the contradiction of Westerners who have very strongly condemned the bombings of the civilian population in Ukraine and who are silent or do little about what is happening in Gaza.

What does France's positioning, widely criticized, inspire you, Emmanuel Macron being accused of zigzags ?

President Macron declared unconditional support for Israel after the horror of the October 7 attacks. Then he tried to organize a humanitarian conference whose results were inevitably insufficient.

He runs the risk of being criticized by those who consider his support for Israel to be excessive, and those who believe that he should not have called for a cease-fire fire.

This war also has repercussions in our societies.

It is certain that there is an importation of the Palestinian conflict, and for a very long time in France, each time dramatic events arise there, there has been an increase in anti-Semitic acts. Young people from the neighborhoods believe that there is injustice in the fact that Palestinians are still subject to occupation and repression and are looking ahead to their situation.

It is important that communities do not set themselves against each other, that we can freely discuss these subjects while prohibiting insults and violence.< /p>

(*) Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant presented a vaguely outlined plan on Thursday evening, according to which there would be "neither Hamas& ;quot; nor "Israeli Civil Administration" in the Palestinian territory after the war.

Pascal Boniface signed, in particular, the comics Géostratégix I and Géostratégix II, illustrated by Tommy (Dunod Graphic.).

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