US presidential election: Donald Trump's historic conviction opens the way to an unprecedented scenario

Donald Trump, vendredi, à New York, au lendemain du verdict. MAXPPP – John Angelillo

L’ancien président s’est posé en victime au lendemain du verdict. Il fait appel.

"Je suis en train de remporter l’élection présidentielle et on me bâillonne." Donald Trump once again posed as a victim on Friday, the day after the verdict rendered by the 12 members of the jury of the New York court which made him the first former president of the United States convicted in criminal trial.

The 77-year-old real estate tycoon was found guilty of all 34 counts in this case of falsifying documents, hiding the payment of 130,000 ;nbsp;$ to former porn actress Stormy Daniels, so that she would keep quiet about an extramarital affair.

He denounces a "rigged trial" and appeals. Now, Judge Juan Merchan, who will deliver his sentence on July 11, is faced with a crucial choice: whether or not to sentence the Republican presidential candidate to a prison sentence.

Will he go to jail ?

It's unlikely in this case, but not impossible. Theoretically, Donald Trump faces four years in prison. But in New York State, prison sentences for forgery are rare.

"This is not the kind of case where one would expect a first-time white-collar offender receives prison sentence", explains New York lawyer Andrew Weinstein. According to six lawyers interviewed by Reuters, fines, suspended probation or community service are in force for these types of offences.

Judge Juan Merchan could, however, take into account Donald Trump's lack of remorse and the seriousness of the accusations because of their links to the 2016 election. But “the stakes for him are political, not judicial”, underlines former American ambassador Jeff Hawkins, lecturer at Sciences Po and researcher at Iris.

What impact ?

Donald Trump will be able to run for president on November 5, regardless of the sentence he receives. Even a possible incarceration could not prevent him from becoming president again on January 20, 2025, if he wins against Joe Biden.

"Nothing is stopping him from running and the vast majority of his followers will vote for him despite this judgment", summarizes Jeff Hawkins. This verdict could, however, have an influence on the most moderate in his camp and the undecided.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Friday, 10% of Republicans and 25% of independents now say they are less likely to vote for him, but, among the latter, 18% ;% are more inclined, on the contrary, to support it. According to analysts, this verdict could have an effect on close votes in certain key states (Swing States).

"This conviction will certainly have an impact, but we must remain (very) careful, continues the researcher.Trump's control over the Republican Party remains total and the multiple accusations and scandals have had almost no impact on the enthusiasm of the Maga world for their candidate. Furthermore, Trump prepared his electorate well in advance for this verdict, saying the process was corrupt. »

Donald Trump has made his trial a powerful platform, multiplying press conferences, and is now trying to galvanize his supporters with this judgment.

A challenge for democracy

Beyond, "whether he is elected or defeated, the stakes for our constitutional regime are enormous, observes former Ambassador Hawkins. Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he has no respect for our democratic standards. He has not accepted the results of the 2020 elections and if he is not victorious in November, neither he nor his supporters will accept the decision of the American electorate. "

It represents a "threat" for "the democracy", hammered Joe Biden on Friday. Criminally convicted, associated with an attempted coup d'état, indicted in three other cases, the billionaire nevertheless remains acclaimed by the polls and widely supported by his party.

An unprecedented scenario with an unfathomable outcome in this fractured democracy.