Between large urban centers and rural areas, “the divide has become more pronounced in recent years,” says political scientist Jérôme Fourquet.

Le directeur du département Opinion de l'Ifop Jérôme Fourquet. MAXPPP – Vincent Isore

Does a dull anger rise from rurality ? The answers of Jérôme Fourquet, director of the Opinion department of Ifop, and essayist.

Demonstration of February 11, 2023 for rurality in Montpellier, winegrowers in November, farmers' revolt: a dull anger is rising from rurality ?

Yes, probably. But this is not a completely new subject. Citizen mobilization, then electoral, with the CPNT movement, emerged at the end of the 1980s, and had its heyday in the 1999 European elections, and in the 2002 presidential election.

This movement crystallized around the issues of hunting, then broadened its discourse to the defense of rurality and traditions. It was called Hunting, Fishing, Nature and Traditions. Jean Saint-Josse had ensured this passage.

Why does this subject remain so anchored ?

French society has become an urban society. However, rural people continue to weigh in on the French demographic: 24% of the population. If we add up the inhabitants of municipalities and towns of less than 20,000 inhabitants, we are at 40%. So they have something to make themselves heard electorally.

But as they have become a minority and decision-making positions are occupied by people who grew up, did their careers and studied in large urban centers, a gap has widened in recent decades in terms of modes. of life, representation, relationship to nature or the animal cause, attachment to certain traditions. It has always existed but the divide has become more pronounced, in the sense that the urban or metropolitan nature of our decision-makers has become more pronounced.

Hence a gap between two France ?

There is a feeling of incomprehension, of being second-class citizens, of being counted as a negligible quantity, or even of contempt, which can exist in certain rural areas or in small cities. This old sauce exists and can be reactivated on different occasions.

When certain social groups start moving, hunters, farmers, the world of bullfighting, because their prerogatives, or their reason for being, are attacked. And depending on the talent and know-how of the leaders of these groups, it can expand to a broader discourse.

What possible translation for the European elections ?

A translation is possible, yes, the potential is there. Afterwards, it is the question of the talent and know-how of the political actors who position themselves in this niche. But other candidates, the RN, or Zemmour can also smell this electoral vein. When Saint-Josse was a hit in the European elections in 1999, the FN was in capiliation, in the middle of a split with the Mégretists. Saint-Josse (6.78%) had done more than the FN (5.69%). A protesting, rural, anti-European space had been liberated.

Willy Schraen, there, he attacks from the north face. The polls give Bardella at 30%…

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