Covid-19: increase in cases, new variants… should we expect a new wave in France ?

Covid-19 : les signaux d’une nouvelle vague ?

Emergencies, SOS doctors, general medicine… the latest figures remind us that we are not yet done with COVID-19.

While consultations for suspected infections linked to Covid-19 are skyrocketing, should we be worried ? Should we fear the main JN.1 sub-variant KP.2 lineage and its FLiRT mutations ? At this stage, there is no question of talking about a new wave.

Modest epidemic resumption in France

Emergency visits for suspected COVID-19 are up 52% ​​over one week in all age groups, according to the latest Public Health France bulletin, particularly among those under 15 (+123%). . The trend is similar at SOS Médecins (+ 51%), with more than 1,500 consultations for suspected COVID-19 in seven days (from 995 to 1,507 procedures from June 3 to 10), especially among those over 75 (+ 85%) and those under 2 years old.

According to the latest bulletin from the Sentinel network (from 06/03/2024 to 06/09/2024), the incidence rate of cases of COVID-19 seen in general medicine consultations for an acute respiratory infection was estimated at 26 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, or 17,274 new cases. Subject to data consolidation, this rate is stable compared to the previous week, and is at a low level of activity. Another indicator comes from the microbiological analysis of wastewater in France, revealing an increased concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

If this epidemic resumption remains modest, the situation is under surveillance. The’"Taylor Swift effect" – the spread of the virus after the singer's concerts last May at La Défense Arena Paris – where many "Swifties" posted videos on TikTok and Instagram with positive COVID-19 tests, reminds us that the risk of clusters is still present.

Why this increase in COVID-19 cases ?

Several hypotheses are put forward. The first is a decrease in immune protection. The second is the possible escape from the vaccine, which remains to be proven.

The majority strain in France currently is a sub-variant called JN1, derived from Omicron, in circulation since 2022. A new sub-lineage called KP.2 is gaining ground, particularly in the United States and Spain.

In a risk analysis published a few days ago on emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2, Public Health France and the national reference center for respiratory infection viruses (Lyon) declared that "the KP.2 sublineage of JN.1 raises questions due to its rapid spread in certain countries (including France) and its genetic profile. It seems to have a gain in escape from immunity but a reduction in its infectivity, thus potentially limiting its diffusion and its severity (in vitro data to be confirmed by real-life studies).

Health authorities, such as the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) and the EMA (European Medicines Agency), recommend adapting vaccines to JN.1 for vaccination campaigns. vaccination 2024/2025 in order to better target circulating variants.

Vaccines and wearing a mask in cases of promiscuity

While it is still too early to talk about a new wave, with Euro football, the arrival of the Olympic Games and millions of visitors, several precautions should be taken . Already, the spring vaccination booster campaign which concerned people aged 80 and over, or immunocompromised, those in EHPADs or long-term care units, as well as fragile people, and which ended a few days ago, could be extended.

Generally speaking, many people at risk of serious forms were not vaccinated during the last campaign. We should also reconnect with good reflexes to limit the spread of the virus: barrier gestures, wearing a mask in closed and busy spaces and often renewing the air in homes. And to those who show symptoms: wear a mask and avoid contact with the most vulnerable people to prevent transmission.