Less mobilization against the National Rally than in 2002: “There is no longer any effect of astonishment”

Manifestation monstre à Montpellier, lors de l’entre-deux tours de la présidentielle de 2002. Midi Libre – JEAN MICHEL MART

Des manifestations monstres avaient suivi en 2002 la qualification de Jean-Marie Le Pen au 2nd tour de la présidentielle. Dans un contexte différent, les temps ont changé.

This Friday evening in Montpellier, Sète, or Lodève, tomorrow in Alès, Béziers, Narbonne, Nîmes, Perpignan, or Mende: everywhere in the region, the Popular Front parties, associations, and unions are calling to come together "against the extreme right".

An unknown remains: what will be the scale of these demonstrations? If the question arises, it is also because since Sunday evening, few have were those recorded across the entire territory. In any case, nothing to do with the aftershocks following the 2002 earthquake, following the first round of the presidential election, when Jean-Marie Le Pen qualified for the second round.

The French, left-wing citizens and voters in the majority, but not only, had begun to invade the streets on the night of April 21 to 22, 2002, in major French cities.

Monster demonstrations in 2002

Demonstrations which never ceased to follow one another, and the processions swelled, throughout the period between the two rounds, until the end of the year. rsquo;acme of May 1, when, according to estimates, between 1.3 and 2 million people marched in around a hundred cities in the country.

"I'm not at all surprised" political journalist Alain Duhamel confided to us on Thursday&nbsp ;: "In 2002, the surprise was massive. Especially on the left, with an added feeling of guilty conscience, because it was the multiplication of candidacies from a divided left that allowed Jean-Marie Le Pen to qualify. Today, it is almost integrated (a success of the RN, Editor's note), after a long climb with which people have become familiar. In 2002, 18% of people were behind Jean-Marie Le Pen. There, there are almost 40% in favor of the extreme right.

"A story that France experienced as a shame"

His colleague Jean-Michel Complete apathy, pointing out a difference in apprehension: "Jean-Marie Le Pen already wore the’ era the fight against immigration, but it then anchored the National Front in a history that France still experienced as a shame: collaboration, Vichy, Pétainism… hellip; Marine Le Pen is no longer bothered by that. And the FN vote remains an anti-immigration vote, to put it simply."

However, notes the journalist,"the RN remains difficult to access. Look with the Republicans: only Ciotti leaving! The others say: no alliance with the RN. Because the RN now has a problem of a different nature than at the time of Jean-Marie Le Pen. This is xenophobia. In an open society, the fear of strangers has something archaic about it. This is the other side of the coin of a popular discourse on immigration".

"Demonstrations during the period between the two rounds" legislative elections ?

Thus, "demonstrations are to be expected between two rounds of these legislative elections" anticipates Alain Duhamel. Of what dimension ? In an admittedly different context, will the crowds of 2002 be observed again ?

If this were not proven, elements of explanation could be put forward, already valid to better understand the absence of mobilization noted in recent days: "First, the left social movement – parties, unions, associations – is not in good health, and his ability to react quickly to a dramatic context has deteriorated a little. And then on the left strong divisions appeared during the European elections" notes Montpellier-born Emmanuel Négrier, research director in political science.

"For the Prime Minister, we feel less danger"

He adds:"The RN's score on Sunday precedes a series of elections where it obtained excellent results. There is no more astonishment effect, this time, we could anticipate it".

However, he also notes, "demonization has not yet worked at the level of Europe (where far-right parties have difficulty forming alliances, Editor's note), or at the level of the apparatus, we see it with Les Républicains…&quot ;

Historian Loris Chavanette notes an essential difference between 2002 and 2024, which can shed light on this moderate reactivity: "In 2002, it was Jean-Marie Le Pen president, there, Bardella Prime minister. In the great French monarchist tradition, it is the figure of the president who dominates. For the Prime Minister, we feel less danger…"

"The RN has not changed"

"The RN has not changed, Bardella advances masked, that's all"  s’unworthy André Vezinhet, senator and boss of the Department of Hérault in 2002 : "If I were in Montpellier, I will return to demonstrate !" he thundered this Thursday.

When another retiree from politics, Daniel Cohn-Bendit, regularly vacationing in Hérault, in Lauret, observed, a bit fatalistic: &amp ;quot;If the RN manages to impose the idea that voting for Bardella means voting against Mélenchon, they will have an absolute majority. Say today “Fascism will not pass”, like in 2002 ? But it has already passed everywhere Sunday! Except in Montpellier. And to Lauret !"

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