War in Ukraine: “worrying signs” now for Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western allies, according to these experts

The counter-offensive of Volodymyr Zelensky's troops failed. MAXPPP – PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE HANDOUT HANDOUT

Analysis with Serhii Plokhy, head of the chair of Ukrainian history and the Institute of Ukrainian Research at Harvard, author of the reference book "The Russo War -Ukrainian: the return of history and Carole Grimaud, Montpellier academic specializing in Russia, founder of the Center for Russia and Eastern Europe research.

Nearly two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, kyiv's counter-offensive has failed and the two countries are stuck in a long-term war.

In recent months, there have been few significant changes on the ground, which shows the difficulty of the Ukrainian forces, despite Western equipment, in breaking through the defense lines that the “The Russians have had time to consolidate,” notes Carole Grimaud, founder of the Center for Russia and Eastern Europe Research.

Ukraine seems to be moving, for the moment, "towards a defensive position", analyzes the Montpellier academic, vice-president of the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory.

Carole Grimaud, academic specializing in Russia. DR

"The situation is reminiscent of trench warfare", in 1914-1918, observes Serhii Plokhy, at the head of the chair of history of ;Ukraine and the Institute of Ukrainian Research at Harvard.

But with "the weapons of the 21st century", underlines the Ukrainian-American historian, author of the reference book "The Russo-Ukrainian War: the return of ;rsquo;history" (Gallimard).

Drones and electronic warfare

On the one hand, “electronic warfare”, with Russian jamming systems which neutralize shells and rockets.

On the other hand, "the drones", which saturate the Ukrainian defenses before each missile launch, forcing Kiev to burn out its munitions, the stocks of which are s& ;rsquo;diminish.

Faced with these technologies, can the entry onto the scene of the F16s, on which Ukrainian pilots are currently training, make the difference ? "The new air strike force will strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities, but this will not completely change the situation, anticipates Carole Grimaud.

Can Putin regain control ?

Moscow is claiming, at the same time, territorial gains, "by veiling the colossal cost that this war continues to impose on Russia", underlines Carole Grimaud.

Because, in fact, "the Russians continue to suffer very heavy losses, the few km2 of territory recaptured from the Ukrainians in recent weeks do not constitute victories", she nuanced.

But Russia settled into a war economy, the whole society was “reshaped” to state patriotism,” explains the expert.

This will be a difficult year for both Ukraine and its allies

"Putin began preparing his army, his industry and his country for a long war shortly after the failure of his blitzkrieg", in 2022, deciphers Serhii Plokhy.

While Ukraine and the West have taken time to think long term and increase the production of weapons and ammunition. Putin will try to take advantage of this gap in 2024. It will be a difficult year for both Ukraine and its allies, he warns.

Is Zelensky weakened ?

Serhii Plokhy asks: "If the front line does not move, will the West continue to support Ukraine?? From the The answer to this question depends on the outcome of the war and the year 2024 may be decisive." 

Some could take advantage of the situation and position themselves already in the post-Zelensky era

Western leaders regularly reaffirm their unwavering support for kyiv. But, in the United States, its scale now depends on the result of the presidential election. In Europe, Hungary is blocking new aid of 50 billion euros.

In Ukraine, the sacred union around the president is cracking. "The critical voices of his future opponents do not hesitate to denounce the conduct of the war."Some could take advantage of the situation and position themselves already in the aftermath of Zelensky" , underlines Carole Grimaud.

What perspectives from now on ?

All “these signs are worrying not only for kyiv" but also for its allies, comments Serhii Plokhy. Europe is in the middle of the biggest war since 1945. The future of international relations depends on its outcome. Neither Ukraine nor the West can afford to lose a war of this magnitude.

For a turning point to occur in favor of Ukraine, "there would need to be a significant change, observes Carole Grimaud. However, there is none to be expected on the side of Moscow, with the almost certain re-election of Putin, the war could still last for years. Time is on the side of Russia, which is taking advantage of internal quarrels in kyiv, signs of reluctance in Western aid and could take advantage of a political weakening to attempt further destabilization or even a major offensive on Kiev. Or wait for proposals for negotiations."

An option ruled out by Volodymyr Zelensky, still determined to reconquer his entire territory.

Serhii Plokhy, head of the chair of Ukrainian history at Harvard. Gallimard – Tania D'Avignon

“Territorial concessions can bring an armistice but not peace, deciphers Serhii Plokhy. If this happens, it will not be the end of the war. The Ukrainians know this thanks to the experience of the Minsk agreements of 2014-2015. The current Russian leadership does not recognize Ukraine’s right to exist as a separate nation." 

This war shows "that the future of independent Ukraine can only lie in European and Euro-Atlantic structures", judges the Harvard professor.

Russia’s objective is therefore to keep an open or latent conflict on Ukrainian territory for as long as possible

But the integration of Ukraine into the EU "seems improbable" as long as it stands ’ quot;balkanized, fragmented,” believes Carole Grimaud.

"Integration into NATO is impossible as long as the conflict continues inside the country. Russia's objective is therefore to keep an open or latent conflict on Ukrainian territory for as long as possible, concludes the expert.

I subscribe to read more