Good news for your wallet: electricity prices will drop in February, what should the French expect ?

The majority of electricity subscribers will not see their bill increase in the coming months, the energy regulator having decided on Wednesday 11 September to postpone the increase in the “network tariff”, linked to transmission costs, until February, at a time when electricity prices are expected to fall sharply.

After several increases, millions of electricity subscribers will be able to breathe: the energy regulator has decided to postpone the revaluation of one of the components of the bill for the majority of customers until February, when electricity prices are expected to fall sharply.

The increase in the “network tariff” , linked to the costs of transporting electricity, will only be applied from February 1. This increase, which represents a 1% increase in the bill for subscribers to the "EDF blue tariff" (regulated tariff), will then be absorbed by the expected fall in electricity prices.

Ultimately, the households concerned could benefit from a reduction in their bill of '"at least 10%", indicated the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) in a deliberation this Wednesday, September 11. The increase, linked to a 4.8% revaluation of the "network tariff&quot (TURPE), was initially scheduled for August 1st.

Avoiding the yo-yo effect

But the resigning government had given up on applying it, a way of avoiding an incomprehensible “yo-yo” of prices for consumers, Bercy justified in mid-July, avoiding a controversy in the process, in the midst of a political crisis.

Energy prices, at their highest in 2021-2022 due to the post-Covid recovery and the war in Ukraine, have indeed largely stirred up the debates of the European and legislative elections. Over two years, electricity prices have jumped by more than 43% despite the price shield introduced by the State. The government had therefore asked the CRE to take a new decision taking better account of its stability recommendations.

This maintains "the annual update" of the TURPE, one of the three building blocks of the bill alongside the cost of electricity itself and taxes, for entry into force on November 1. But, "with the aim of price stability and readability", for households and very small businesses with regulated electricity sales tariffs (TRVE), i.e. 22.4 million meters, the CRE proposes to postpone this increase in the TURPE until February 1, the usual TRVE review date. The aim is to make the increase painless, thanks to the decline in electricity prices which are included in the calculation of the bill.

200 euros on the annual bill

Even if they have not returned to their pre-crisis level (40/50 euros per megawatt hour), these market prices are now stabilizing at around 60-70 euros per MWh, far from the peaks of 2022. “Based on current price and tax forecasts”, the CRE thus anticipates “a reduction in TRVEs of at least 10% on February 1”, a first since the start of the energy crisis.

Concretely, for an average household with an annual bill of 2,000 euros, the savings are estimated at at least 200 euros per year. This reduction therefore includes the increase in the TURPE and the increase in the excise duty on electricity, a tax that the outgoing government promised to reinstate as much as possible in order to definitively get out of the costly tariff shield.

The increase in the TURPE will, however, be applicable on November 1st for the 17.5 million households and businesses with market offers. In theory, because operators are free not to pass it on. “It is not excluded that very few will do so”, indicates the CRE to the AFP. These suppliers are currently offering offers that are much lower than the TRVE, by around 20%.

Different time slots ?

In its deliberation of 26 June, the Commission recommended increasing the “network tariff”, reviewed each year in August, by 4.8% to take into account the increase in the transmission costs of the distribution manager Enedis, a sort of toll paid by suppliers and passed on to consumers. An update "necessary" repeats the CRE, while France will have to use more electricity to get out of fossil fuels.

In an interview given to Le Figaro on Wednesday, the president of the CRE Emmanuelle Wargon also indicated that she was working with Enedis to redraw the calendar of peak and off-peak hours that determine the price of certain subscriptions.

The former minister raises the possibility that the 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. time slot becomes a peak hour or that the time slots differ between summer and winter "to take into account  the period of the day during which the production of solar panels is the highest".