Summer weather trends: after a mixed spring, what are the forecasts for the next three months ?

Les tendances à trois mois de Météo France laissent entrevoir un été plus chaud et sec que la moyenne. Illustration MAXPPP – Jean-Marc Lallemand

Will summer be like the spring we had: unstable and humid? Not necessarily. This Tuesday, May 28, Météo France publishes its three-month forecasts, and thus gives the trend of the summer which begins, meteorologically, from this Saturday, June 1.

Are we at risk of regretting the freshness of spring ? Whereas this year, the spring was marked by instability and a recurrence of precipitation, which made it possible to water with soils suffering from drought, summer could well bring us back harshly to the reality dictated by global warming.

"For the quarter, in France, warmer than normal conditions are most likely. Concerning precipitation, the southwest and the Mediterranean rim will probably be drier than normal", indicates Météo France.

Dry and hot in the Mediterranean

Thus for France, the scenario that emerges most is that of a hot summer. Warmer than normal for the season with a probability estimated at 50%. Concerning the Mediterranean basin, this probability rises to 70%.

As for the expected precipitation, "a dry scenario is favored in the southernmost regions of France and on Corsica. This most likely scenario is understood on a quarterly scale and does not exclude occasional episodes with rainfall that could be locally significant", notes the bulletin , which on the other hand did not establish a trend for the rest of France.

Forecasters point out that these so-called "probabilistic" indicate for large regions of the globe the most probable scenario among the following three: close to, below or above normal.

Météo France therefore emphasizes that these trends do not allow "to predict the details of the weather conditions of the coming months day by day or even week by week. It only strives to determine the expected trends on average over the quarter".